Historical TSWV Predictions: Using the Tobacco Thrips Flight and TSWV Intensity Predictor
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Collapse ▲In order to help growers determine the potential of management practices for TSWV, the Tobacco Thrips Flight and TSWV Intensity Predictor was developed in collaboration with the NC State Climate Office. Because it is the time when growers are thinking about Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus (TSWV) management, here is a step-by-step guide on how to use the Tobacco Thrips Flight and TSWV Intensity Predictor to create Historical TSWV Predictions. A separate publication will include how to create TSWV Risk Assessments: Using the Tobacco Thrips Flight and TSWV Intensity Predictor.
Using historical TSWV predictions serves several important purposes. First, it helps establish a location-specific baseline of TSWV risk based on past weather patterns and user-reported TSWV incidence, allowing the tool to generate adjusted, more accurate forecasts for current conditions. This is particularly important because field-level variation in cultivation practices, such as transplant dates, imidacloprid use, or location, can greatly influence disease outcomes and are not captured by weather data alone.
By viewing and comparing historical predictions, growers and researchers can evaluate how thrips activity and TSWV risk have fluctuated across seasons, identifying trends linked to warmer winters or unusual rainfall patterns. This retrospective insight enables better planning for transplant timing, early intervention with insecticides or plant activators, and proactive risk management. Additionally, comparing historical tool predictions with actual field observations enhances confidence in the model and informs future decision-making.
To create a historical prediction you will need the information outlined and to follow the detailed steps below.
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Historical TSWV Incidence: Users input the average historical TSWV incidence (as a percentage) for their location. This data serves as a baseline for the tool’s forecasting.
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Optional Inputs:
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Anticipated Planting Date: While optional, entering this can provide tailored recommendations.
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Greenhouse Treatment: Users can specify if they used treatments like Admire Pro® (imidacloprid), Actigard® (acibenzolar-S-methyl), both, or none. These inputs help refine the tool’s recommendations but do not influence the core risk or thrips dispersal estimates.
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Historical predictions help you see how weather-driven thrips activity and TSWV risk have varied from year to year. This enables growers and researchers to Identify high-risk seasons (e.g., warmer winters, earlier 3rd generation thrips flights), evaluate the consistency or variability of the model, make informed decisions about planting timing, chemical use, or resistance strategies.