To help growers determine the potential of management practices for TSWV, we have created step-by-step guides on how to use the Tobacco Thrips Flight and TSWV Intensity Predictor to create Current Year TSWV Risk Assessments and Historical TSWV Predictions. Growers are strongly encouraged to create their own models using the information from their fields and season dates to plan for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus (TSWV) management. 

Predictive models for the locations below continue to suggest elevated TSWV risk for the 2026 tobacco season, particularly in the Kinston and Whiteville areas. The estimated end-of-season TSWV risk was 62.8% for Kinston and 50.5% for Whiteville, while the estimated risk was 13.6% for both Kenly and New Bern.

The predicted timing of tobacco thrips flights remains especially important because the 3rd generation tobacco thrips flight is typically responsible for most TSWV transmission in the Southeast, and the 4th generation also contributes meaningful transmission when plants are still young. The current reports estimate that the 3rd generation began dispersing to crop hosts around April 7 in Whiteville, April 17 in Kinston, April 19 in New Bern, and April 20 in Kenly. Meaning that most of the 3rd generation of thrips have already moved out from their reproducing hosts (usually weed hosts and alternative crop hosts). The movement of this generation was earlier by about 3-5 days in areas like Kinston and Whiteville compared to last year, which may be attributed to the high temperatures at the beginning of spring. The high temperatures that likely promoted earlier thrips flight led to an overlap between 3rd generations and the early transplant period (April 10-15), when tobacco plants are still small and most susceptible to TSWV infection. This could explain the high estimated TSWV risk in these areas by the predictor tool.

The 4th generation was estimated around April 25 in Whiteville and May 10 in Kinston, meaning most of this generation has already dispersed. The 4th generation is expected to begin dispersing next week, with dispersal beginning in central areas on May 14 in New Bern and on May 15 in Kenly.

These outputs indicate that growers should remain alert for TSWV risk, especially in areas with a history of moderate to high disease incidence (>10% incidence) or where tobacco was transplanted close to the 3rd and 4th thrips flight windows. Fields transplanted in mid- to late April may be at greater risk this year in areas like Kenly and Kinston, compared to previous years when there was a few days' gap between early planting (April 10-15) and 3rd generation flights. Because TSWV symptoms may take 2–4 weeks after infection to become visible, the absence of symptoms immediately after thrips flights does not necessarily indicate that infection has not occurred.

It is likely that areas with a high incidence of TSWV in 2025 will experience high disease incidence this year. Tobacco growers in these areas may want to consider foliar applications 2–3 weeks after transplant to protect their crop. This year, early-season monitoring for TSWV and well-timed applications in high-risk areas (>10% risk areas) are vital to protect the crop. Treatment in addition to standard insecticides is typically not required for low-risk areas with a history of <10% TSWV incidence. However, if TSWV incidence reached 10% or higher in any of these low-risk areas in 2025, additional applications may need to be considered in 2026 to protect the crop, even if planted early (around April 15).

A greenhouse or transplant water application of imidacloprid, alone or combined with Actigard® foliar applications, is recommended to minimize potential losses from TSW disease if you have yet to plant your tobacco. If imidacloprid was not applied in the greenhouse or at transplant, foliar applications of imidacloprid can be conducted to protect against TSWV. More than one application of imidacloprid products within a season is not recommended due to insecticide resistance concerns. If foliar applications of Actigard® are being considered, the sooner plants are treated, the better, since it takes a few days for the product to become effective, and it can provide protection for ~2 weeks (depending on environmental conditions). See the NC Agricultural Chemicals Manual and the NC Flue Cured and Burley Tobacco Guide for details on TSWV management practices.

This and future updates are created based on reports generated with the Tobacco Thrips Flight and TSWV Intensity Predictor. Predictor settings include no insecticide treatment, desired planting date (April 15 used as standard planting date), and the average historical TSWV incidence for each location, as listed below:

• Kenly is a relatively low TSWV risk site (typically around 5%), situated within large acreage production areas in Johnston and Wilson Counties.
• Kinston is a moderate TSWV risk site (typically around 8%) in Lenoir County and also houses the NCDA&CS Cunningham Research Station, where extensive tobacco research is conducted.
• New Bern is a higher TSWV risk site (typically above 10%) in Craven County.
• Whiteville is a moderate to high TSWV risk site (around or above 10%) in Columbus County and also houses the NCDA & CS Border Belt Tobacco Research Station , where tobacco research is conducted.