The 2024 growing season continues to present challenges, this time in the form of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Debby.
This is a rather interesting (and concerning) system because it will likely touch every major flue-cured tobacco growing area of the US. I don't know that USDA production maps from the 1950's outline the growing areas as well as the projected path of Debby. That's not meant to be humorous, but it does emphasize the point that a short volume flue-cured crop may get a lot shorter by the end of the week.
As we think through what may happen in the days ahead, we may need everyone to think about wind and rain separately for the time being. At some point, we may have to think about these two things together, but this forecast is all over the place with predicted rainfall and potential wind gusts. First, why is wind such an issue? As the tobacco leaves become mature and begin to ripen (senesce), ethylene is created which enhances ripening. Ethylene is a natural plant hormone. It is our experience that sustained winds for a period of more than a day will promote ethylene production in situations like this one. There's really no good reference for how much wind and how long the duration needs to be, we just know that more wind equates to more deterioration in the short-term. Of course, high winds that blow tobacco over are another story and whether or not standing tobacco up is worthwhile is a decision each farmer will have to make on their own. Given past experiences, it is probable that we'll know fairly quickly how much wind damage is experienced and how long the harvest window will remain open. Regarding harvest windows, page 28 of the USDA Hurricane Preparedness Guide highlights the outcome of windblown tobacco (from a hurricane) in 2011. In short, the sooner the tobacco could be harvested, the better the results were - as it deteriorated rapidly under those conditions. It is also important to note that the 2011 hurricane impacted southern North Carolina in September, so we were at a different stage than the present situation.
What about water? Standing water will exacerbate leaf deterioration due to anaerobic (little to no oxygen) conditions in the rootzone. If water exits a field within a few hours or a day, I don't know that I'd be overly concerned given the current situation. Alternatively, if water does not exit for more than 24 hours, we strongly consider doing anything possible to promote drainage. These comments are in relation to moderate amounts of rainfall, perhaps, less than four or five inches. Most rainfall predictions for central and eastern North Carolina are much higher than this. Of course, this can change, but if we have six or more inches of rain, we may start to see rapid deterioration. This is a guess, but probably accurate considering how much rain has fallen across the tobacco belt over the last month. This will be enhanced as wind speed increases or is sustained. Standing water is an issue unto itself, but saturated soils are equally as problematic because water-logged soils are likely to lead to declines in root health as well. Declining root health will, in turn, lead to leaf deterioration.
Deciding what to do once the storm clears may prove difficult. Where harvest is possible, growers should harvest the worst fields first (if they decide to harvest at all) as they will deteriorate quickest. It is likely advisable for growers to consult with insurance adjusters before working in fields. Unfortunately, we've had a significant amount of experience with hurricanes over the last decade, so this too should be an old hat...
There is still a lot to happen over the next few days and things can change. Likewise, there are a number of moving parts to this situation, so please feel free to reach out to your local Count Agent if you have any questions.
